Sorgente et al. (2003) used the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) to study the flow through the Sicily Channel. This modelling identified two main AW veins, one in the south along the African coast and the other in the north along the Sicilian coast. Based on geostrophic calculations using CTD data from April 2003–October 2003, Ferjani & Gana (2010) indicated that the mean inflow and outflow through the western side of the Sicily Channel were 0.5 and 0.4 × 106 m3 s− 1 respectively.

Stanev et al. (2000) characterized the water exchange through the Bosphorus-Marmara-Dardanelles system as a two-layer flow, in which see more Black Sea water occupied the surface layer (average flow of 0.019 × 106 m3 s− 1) and Mediterranean water occupied the deep layer (average flow of 0.009 × 106 m3 s− 1). Recent estimates indicate a reduction in inflow of approximately 0.003 × 106 m3 s− 1, which affects the North Aegean Sea circulation (Stanev & Peneva 2002). Nixon (2003) and Ludwig et al. (2009) estimated that the average discharge of the River Nile to the Mediterranean basin after the construction of the Aswan High Dam decreased by a factor of more than two. The paper aims to: (1) examine the water exchange through the Sicily Channel, (2) calculate the long-term change in vertical temperature and salinity distribution in the Eastern Mediterranean Basin, and (3) examine the heat and water balances of the Eastern Mediterranean Basin. The study

uses a simple ocean model to analyse a large set of meteorological and hydrological data used for forcing. The model simulations are validated and the main conclusions are drawn using independent selleck chemical oceanographic observations. The paper is structured as follows: section 2 presents the data and models used; section 3 presents the results, while section 4 discusses them; finally, the appendices provide a full description of the model. The study relies on the numerical modelling of the heat and water balances of the Eastern

Mediterranean Basin and the water exchange through the Sicily Channel. The present version of the model is vertically resolved and time-dependent, based on horizontally-averaged either input data over the study area and with in- and outflows controlling the vertical circulation. The meteorological data were horizontally averaged using linear interpolation over the EMB to describe the general features of the forcing data. Exchange through the Sicily Channel was modelled using: (1) current speeds across the Sicily Channel calculated from satellite recordings, (2) evaporation rates calculated from the model, (3) observed precipitation rates, and (4) observed river data. The period studied was 1958–2009. Several data sources have been used in this study, as follows: 1. Mediterranean Sea absolute dynamic topography data from May 2006 to October 2009. These data were extracted from the Archiving, Validation and Interpretation of Satellite Oceanographic data (AVISO) database available at http://www.aviso.